Last updated on December 7th, 2024 at 04:06 pm
If you are a long-time Buffalo Bills fan, you have waited for a long time for the team to win the Super Bowl. However, they have the best chance to win the trophy this year. The team is currently on a historic run led by quarterback Josh Allen.
At the very least, the Bills’ chances of winning the Super Bowl are their best in the past few years.
According to the New York Times’ playoff simulator, the Bills have a 20% shot of winning the Super Bowl. Starting with Allen’s 2019 postseason run, the Bills’ odds have never been better based on bookie pay per head reports.
Odds of Buffalo Bills to Win the Super Bowl
The team’s record is 10-2. We have not seen a Bills squad this century with a better record after 12 games. They also won the AFC East last week, the earliest a team has won a division title since the NFL extended the season to 17 games.
From last year, the Bills just edged off the Dolphins in the divisional round. From a 6-6 campaign deficit, they had to come back and overcome every obstacle. While Josh Allen was in charge, the Bills only came close to matching their current record in 2020 and 2022.
According to a sportsbook software and platform provider, the Bills’ 2020 season ended with a 9-3 record. But that squad was very fortunate. Their point differential, which measures the difference between their points scored and points allowed, was a meager 27 points after 12 games. After twelve games this season, the Bills have a 131-point scoring advantage.
A large margin of victory is typical for the Bills whenever they triumph. They have only won three times by a single score (eight points or fewer). Just last week, they thrashed the San Francisco 49ers 35-10, an example of how frequently they knock off opponents.
Bills Stats This Season
They have a 131-point lead, which is good for second place in the NFL and first in the AFC by 59 points, behind only the Super Bowl-contending Detroit Lions. Although it isn’t the only metric that predicts postseason success (look at the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs), the point differential is substantial.
Just think about how many times in the past 40+ years the club with the second-best point differential at season’s conclusion has made it to the Super Bowl. Only one-third of the time has the team with the second-best point differential gone on to win the Super Bowl.
With the current odds, I’d be surprised if most Bills supporters wouldn’t accept a 30% shot at winning the Super Bowl. Of course, the Bills have witnessed a previously underwhelming squad finish second in point differential in 2022. The 2022 squad went 9-3 and 10-3 overall, just a little poorer than the 2024 squad.
The 2022 squad, on the other hand, was having a tough time making it through the season. In their five games leading up to Week 14, they had four points in victories, down from an average of fifteen in October.
On the other hand, the squad for 2024 is rolling. The Bills enter Week 14, riding a five-game winning streak with an average margin of fourteen points. The two teams atop their respective divisions, the Chiefs and the Seattle Seahawks, are beaten by double digits during this 2024 streak.
Do you have a football sportsbook? It is vital you know the importance to monitor wagering analytics. That way, you can better understand your players.
